Erwin van Veen

@ErwinVeen

Applied research on conflict in the . Strategic advice on getting 2less violence. Curious and critical. Be4 with ,

Brussels
clingendael.org/person/erwin-v…
Joined December 2011
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    25 Sep 2020

    If you think analysis is difficult, try policy-making. Aiming for the Overton window and applying Occam's razor while avoiding both hubris and Cartesian circles. But, good analysis helps and I'm always happy 2try provide it.

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  2. 17 hours ago

    Hypothesis: Confidential reports are labelled 'confidential' so that they circulate more widely and are read by more senior folks. It's just an outreach tactic...

    1 retweet 5 likes
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  3. 20 hours ago

    Musawat - an impressive coalition of Arab CSOs, and - pushes 4greater religious tolerance and online freedom of expression in the . The opposite of Pegasus meets jihadi John, in a way. Here's a chance 2join the conversation:

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  4. 20 hours ago

    These data suggest US sanctions will cause more economic disruption, but not at intolerable levels Conclusion strong 4medium-term, but +nuclear dev are short-term & won't likely be influenced by the state of the economy 2/2

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  5. 20 hours ago

    The main reason US sanctions on did not work out well: A diversified economy 'creatively' governed. By for 1/2

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  6. Oct 15

    Provisional dissection of the elections by for Lot of seats changing hands between the political party cartel, but also a measure of change that can be build on. Elections matter, how much exactly remains to be seen.

    1 retweet 5 likes
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  7. Oct 14

    It seems strange that NL cooperates on security w whose IDF violates int. law &human rights at a remarkable scale. 4decades. As recorded countless times by the UN. Like here: - Art. 90 constitution?

    Today our Ambassador and 🇮🇱Defense Minister signed an agreement supporting our security cooperation, as part of a bilateral meeting between delegations from the Ministries of Defense. For more info, see
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  8. Oct 14

    I have never seen anyone experiencing a gun fight in such a relaxed manner. Plus, no counter fire.

    0:10
    A version of this man turns up at every gun fight in Lebanon, without fail. It’s a useful indicator of whether you’re looking at an actual exchange of fire or a show for the cameras.
    3 replies 2 likes
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  9. Retweeted
    Oct 12

    On October 14, Netflix will launch the Palestinian Stories collection, a lineup of award-winning films by Palestinian filmmakers or about Palestinian Stories. The collection is set to launch with 32 films with more to be added over the next few weeks

    2 replies 178 retweets 455 likes
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  10. Oct 14

    PS: We also made a few methodology changes : - Incorporated actions against IS under the CT label - Included all action by -linked armed groups against coalition forces under Muqawama actions - Only included actions if initiated by PKK

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  11. Oct 14

    Unsurprisingly, levels of violence in were a bit lower in September compared w. August ahead of the elections ⬇️ Thanks IS attacks steady, fewer CT ops, fewer Muqawama incidents. Also reduction in -PKK incidents

    3 replies 7 retweets 20 likes
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  12. Oct 13

    But altering the existing power balance is the condition sine qua non… I reference our latest brief: 4/4

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  13. Oct 13

    In discussion w. other facilitators afterwards, the (con)federal solution came up 4 and with basic rights guaranteed in an ECHR-style document. And a strong push across both societies for dialogue, outreach and reconciliation 2reconstruct identities 3/4

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  14. Oct 13

    They also raised the possibility of territorial swaps and saw a need 2recognize ’s upper hand by granting it a few more strategic locations than the . Say greater gas revenues or a larger part of Jerusalem. 2/4

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  15. Oct 13

    Fascinating engagement w a secondary school class yesterday on the occupation of . Within 30min they proposed both 1-state & 2-states solutions (but 50:50 of the entire area) based on a mix of human rights, dialogue and equality. 1/4

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  16. Oct 9

    I suspect the nuclear deal negotiations are a piece of cake compared w the diplomatic effort required2 get the kids out of bed4 swimming on a Saturday morning without a crisis…

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  17. Oct 7

    Recommended reading: ‘Peasants into Frenchmen’, by Eugen Weber.

    "... made a major mistake. Playing the amateur historian, he questioned whether had ever existed “as a nation” before French colonization, a period in which the region of Algeria was a precinct of the Empire."
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  18. Oct 6

    Undoubtedly worth reading ⬇️ My bottom line: elections in r more likely 2produce more of the same than enable political rejuvenation. Due 2targeted violence of protestors, elite entrenchment, division in protest movement & dominance major parties.

    (1/7) 📢 📢🆕 New research paper! 📢 📢 🇮🇶 | In a new paper, Victoria Stewart-Jolley examines the impact of changes to ’s laws since 2005 on the government formation process following each election.
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  19. Oct 6

    concerns about getting some of its own 'encirclement' medicine. - & -. reports . Tehran uses attacks on 's KRI 'pour decourager les autres' As large US military presences⬇️, less obtrusive links grow?

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  20. Oct 5

    3. International, national and human security priorities are not identical. How strikes the balance will be key 2success This requires thorough political economy and conflict analysis, a cautious procedure and a real learning attitude (aka not like ) 2/2

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  21. Oct 5

    🧵from on worth reading. Few issues: 1. If the EPF becomes a train&equip fund 4armed forces acting in line w EU interests, it will likely fail (human + strategic) 2. If the EPF includes a serious focus on security sector governance, it could become an asset. 1/2

    On the - where is ? Risks to civilians must be addressed. Read our statement:
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