First, it's important to take seriously that these errors could be noise. ECI is derived from the National Compensation Survey (NCS), which IIRC has a sample size of roughly 12,000 establishments per quarter. That's not a large sample by any stretch.
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However, the qualitative story being told by ECI -- a plateauing of nominal wage growth, and a wedge between managerial and nonmanagerial wage growth -- is broadly consistent with what some other wage measures are telling us, notably AHE overall v production/nonsupervisory.pic.twitter.com/Jfs8yfwfWT
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Nonmanagerial wage growth appears to still be accelerating in ECI but plateauing in AHE; these differences might be explained by composition. That is: the recovery is pulling in low-wage non-manager workers that mathematically lower AHE but not ECI since ECI controls for that.
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And some of the recent strength of nonmanagers relative to managers is due to state and local minimum wage changes.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/upshot/minimum-wage-boost-bottom-earners.html …
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So why is *managerial* pay not growing? We can probably rule out weakness in regular incentive bonuses as a reason: filtering out incentive-paid managers (think: managers who get sales-based bonuses) doesn't make their wage growth any stronger.pic.twitter.com/dHWBE3wcDM
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@aaronsojourner points out that we may be seeing a fall in demand for professional services like consulting.https://twitter.com/aaronsojourner/status/1223250315773825024 …
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There's been a medium-term decline in legal services employment too.pic.twitter.com/kUDmFo4GcC
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Perhaps the trade war is the mechanism for the more recent decline in demand / plateauing of wages among managers / professionals. Or perhaps with a more educated population, labor market slack puts more downward pressure on manager wages than in the past.
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Note that wage rigidity (share of workers reporting no Y-Y nominal raise) has basically stopped declining and perhaps even risen somewhat for managers / professionals (upper left here)pic.twitter.com/NKKQI6TvlU
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Also, this appears to be a wide phenomenon across industries. Median pay growth for managers is either stagnant or bouncing near highs from earlier in the cycle, except in trade/transportation/utilities where it appears to be weakening.pic.twitter.com/N12xEuaHQF
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