There's no fire alarm for artificial general intelligence, so if you're not alarmed by this, nothing will alarm you until it is much, much too late. https://intelligence.org/2019/08/06/august-2019-newsletter/ …pic.twitter.com/GHfSvvkWx7
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Why on earth should that alarm you? He was specifically asking for certainty about the least impressive thing. That by definition is asking for a high degree of precision about something inherently vague. That is why there was silence. This is a completely adequate explanation.
Yes, one should come at such questions with tremendous uncertainty; that's a large part of the point of the essay.
In fact, the 2.5 year result should *impress* you with the accuracy of the prediction.
Least impressive that will not be accomplished in two years should in fact be accomplished in shortly more than two years.
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