So Trump is about to pardon Libby, on DiGenova and Toensing's advice, as an object lesson that presidential firewalls will be taken care of.
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Libby risked prison, didn't flip on Cheney or Bush, but avoided prison time w/commutation. While PapaDick pushed hard for pardon it didn't happen, bc Bush had far better lawyers than Trump has.
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Here's some of the difference: 1) Both Manafort and Cohen are facing state pokey, in addition to federal (even ignoring how the Russian mob may treat them). 2) Libby was the bottleneck witness. You needed him, or you got nowhere. Not so w/Trump.
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3) Trump commuted but did not pardon Libby, then refused, against PapaDick's plaints, bc (smarter lawyer) lawyer counseled that'd be obstruction. Trump CAN'T pardon, for same reason: bc these witnesses will lose 5A.
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4) Di Genova and Toensing (who are not good lawyers but pound tables well) haven't figured out that this won't be a one-off: This won't be one (Manafort) or two (Cohen) people Trump has to pardon. And THEY DON'T KNOW the full scope of who Trump would have to pardon here.
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And finally, here's the race: 5) Mueller Will Label Dangling Pardons as Obstruction of Justice Just as He Drops More Conspiracy Charges https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/04/12/mueller-will-label-dangling-pardons-as-obstruction-of-justice-just-as-he-drops-more-conspiracy-charges/ …
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Trump has already fucked this up. Table pounders can't purify his pardon authorities. Plus, hell, I'm not sure Pence is ready to play Gerald Ford here. Why would he?
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So we're on a bit of a race. Non-zero chance we wake up to a Rosenstein firing. How many indictments does Mueller have banked? I'm betting 2-4. DiGenova and Toensing are not able to factor those in. Do those 2-4 change perceptions?
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And how many people will Meuller get indicted by end of day (I expect Stone will be one). As I said, Cohen charges can be punted to NYS, even before the civil case where he just plead guilty.
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There are just too many moving parts for table thumpers like DiGenova and Toensing to understand in time to manage this.
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Another thing to add to this is thanks to Burdick vs United States acceptance of pardon is a confession of guilt. This means those pardoned could freely testify and can’t plead the fifth.
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Was included in the thread. That's why Libby was commuted, not pardoned.
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It’s weird seeing Libby in the news again. Flashbacks to shitty days - though in retrospect not nearly as shitty as now lol.
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Do you have a sense of whether a fear of "extralegal" punishment from various Russians factors into Manafort's or Cohen's thinking?
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It would in mine. Heavily.
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I bet Trump did not even know who Libby was before recently.
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"What do you want, Cupcake? Club Fed or Rikers?
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Does any lawyer want to offer an opinion on whether this move bolsters the obstruction case. Libby had his voting rights & law license restored a few years back, so the pardon will do little to change his life.
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Pokey's the operative word. This is unprecedented. – at Mt. Hood Meadows Ski Resort
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>>Russian mob may treat them Not to get too dramatic, but what's happened to previous "mob lawyer(s)" who suddenly become a big liability? Some (alleged) "at their own hand" stuff? In yesterday's video Cohen sort of had that final walk around the neighborhood look.
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There were also fewer very high resolution recording supercomputers in people's pockets during Bush II.
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What are the possible State offenses that Cohen is facing? I’ve been searching around for this but I haven’t found anything.
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