emptywheel

Weirdly, I suppose, I'm guessing he won't (though he may plead guilty). I wonder if he's done so much bad shit and is so untrustworthy that it may not be worth it.

My white collar criminal attorney father disagrees with this, so I'm going with him!

Disagrees with that? That he won't flip? I definitely see that side of things.

My dad thinks that Mueller will definitely at least try to get him to flip, no matter how much bad shit he's done and how untrustworthy he is. Cited Sammy the Bull.

And you're now siding with Dad? I think that's right. Though definitely see why Manafort might not do it. At some point, though, he's going to run out of $$ to pay lawyers. If he hasn't already.

Two weeks after bond is revoked. They always flip in jail, for some reason

What do you make of the idea circulating that Manafort holds out for a pardon or goes to trial rather than plea because cooperation would put him in danger of assassination?

I think he is in great danger of assassination, yes.

So jail is the safest place?

Jail is NOT the safest place.

Then why in the world would he flip?

Is he the key to Trump?

Mueller has a number of keys in his pocket.

And do we think one of those keys has Jared's name on it?

Could a preemptive pardon = obstruction?

Hard to do that, but not impossible. It's just not clear how it'll help at this point, and that's even before you consider the sealed indictment filed in the last week.

A single pardon? That would be hard. But a series would be easier than you think to fit within obstruction. Some asshole has been saying that for a while though.

So as a Trump strategy, why not have Manafort take the bullet, then commute sentence, add a fine, claim the whole thing was excessive and politically motivated, as was done with Scooter.

Because there is so much more in play than just Manafort. And Trump is not near the top of Manafort's concerns.