Want to swing MI? Swing Macomb county, home of the famous Reagan Democrat.
Thus far the evidence shows they weren't targeting key areas--it shows the opposite. But key areas are real.
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Obama won Michigan by 449,313. Trump won it by 10,704 (diff: 460,017). Swing in Macomb County was from D+16,103 to R+48,348 (diff: 54,451).pic.twitter.com/Yw4uvGzRDO
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IOW Macomb accounted for just 12% of Trump's statewide swing. Necessary for him to win but not near sufficient, and other places swung too.
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There's a big confluence of cause and effect. Trump's success with non college whites shows up in Macomb but happened everywhere.
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Yeah. "Target the kind of thing that would win you Macomb as an effect", maybe. "Target Macomb itself", that's a bit shakier.
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