but is it true? Gap tightened by a point in the 4 days before Comey letter.
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Replying to @djjohnso
in swing states where there were more than a few polls she fell nearly 3pts in the week or so after Comey
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Replying to @williamjordann
and the week before? I'll check both at same time. Comey slightly accelerated what was already the trend.
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Replying to @williamjordann
I just did Pennsylvania. It's only a 1.34% drop for week before and week after Comey. I'm now doing the prior week.
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Replying to @williamjordann
cc
@emptywheel ^^ chart shows at state level (albeit imperfectly) the phenomenon we talked about re tightening pre-Comey.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @djjohnso
Actually that's interesting bc the
#s Nate used to argue this showed significant variance among states.@williamjordann2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @emptywheel @williamjordann
In fact, the numbers in the chart are week before, 10 days after. Better:
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PA polls: 10 day avg post-pussy tape: 5.9% spread 10 day avg pre-Comey: 4.3% 10 day avg post-Comey: 3.3%
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Which presumably goes against my ACA theory, bc it had the biggest increases. @williamjordann
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