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emptywheel's profile
emptywheel
emptywheel
emptywheel
@emptywheel

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emptywheel

@emptywheel

Abundant tweets about civil liberties & national security. "Has a longer memory than an elephant & keeps more records than Jim Comey.” Legendary potty mouth.

Grand Rapids, MI
emptywheel.net
Joined August 2008

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    1. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 16 Dec 2016
      Replying to @williamjordann

      to live in the world where Clinton went to WI/MI but everybody snarks that Russia didn't make her go there instead of locking down PA/FL

      4 replies 15 retweets 44 likes
    2. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @williamjordann

      just sayin, Clinton in a non-Comey/Ru world is a 3rd-term incumbent with garbage approval numbers beating economic models & winning by ~5pts

      4 replies 4 retweets 10 likes
    3. Doug Johnson Hatlem‏ @djjohnso 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @williamjordann

      but is it true? Gap tightened by a point in the 4 days before Comey letter.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @djjohnso

      in swing states where there were more than a few polls she fell nearly 3pts in the week or so after Comey

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Doug Johnson Hatlem‏ @djjohnso 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @williamjordann

      and the week before? I'll check both at same time. Comey slightly accelerated what was already the trend.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @djjohnso

      we don't know what the trend was

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Doug Johnson Hatlem‏ @djjohnso 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @williamjordann

      I just did Pennsylvania. It's only a 1.34% drop for week before and week after Comey. I'm now doing the prior week.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @djjohnso

      pic.twitter.com/TC3vDt1Ffi

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Doug Johnson Hatlem‏ @djjohnso 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @williamjordann

      cc @emptywheel ^^ chart shows at state level (albeit imperfectly) the phenomenon we talked about re tightening pre-Comey.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @djjohnso

      Actually that's interesting bc the #s Nate used to argue this showed significant variance among states. @williamjordann

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 17 Dec 2016
      Replying to @emptywheel @djjohnso

      That shows up here. W/VA, one of ones you'd THINK would care abt Comey, not. @williamjordann

      5:15 PM - 17 Dec 2016
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 17 Dec 2016
          Replying to @emptywheel @djjohnso

          previous accidentally left out a key part, which is the number of polls.pic.twitter.com/AorXqaMNc2

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 17 Dec 2016
          Replying to @williamjordann @emptywheel @djjohnso

          VA is an example of a place where the polls were both accurate and shifted 3 points pre-Comey.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 17 Dec 2016
          Replying to @williamjordann @emptywheel @djjohnso

          *post-Comey

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

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