Is there a theory of decision-making in which people change their minds BEFORE event that makes them change happens? @jackshafer
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Replying to @emptywheel @jackshafer
I understood your point, and I'm not suggesting we attribute pre-Comey polling 2 Comey. I'm suggesting u're bringing
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the wrong frame to the question of what the evidence shows
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Replying to @majorajam
You're saying polling numbers showing a move b4 Comey & plateau then climb after proves ... what?
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Replying to @emptywheel @jackshafer
I'm saying the polling showed a significant move toward Trump post-Comey and that the move beforehand is irrelevant
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Replying to @majorajam
But that's not what the graphic linked showed. Here's what it showed, w/Comey letter marked.
@jackshaferpic.twitter.com/IOZnLhS2uz
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Replying to @emptywheel @jackshafer
Thats not the only linked chart. Also, read the text, do you seriously think Wang is that is that incompetent?
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the arrow on the chart clearly includes the nosedive. Agree the axis labels seem strange, but I doubt that means...
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what you think. Notably his conclusions align with those of fivethirtyeight
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Replying to @majorajam
I addressed what FiveThirtyEight and others said here. https://www.emptywheel.net/2016/11/11/blame-comey-movement/ …
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And me on ObamaCare premium hike. https://www.emptywheel.net/2016/11/13/role-obamacare-premium-hikes-trumps-win/ … @jackshafer
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this is a good point on Obamacare premium hike. Doesn't have to be one or other, could be both, but more
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Replying to @lookoutcoffee @emptywheel and
folks like
@NateSilver538 should also put attention on OCare premium hike as an important added factor0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
End of conversation
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