u're obviously not a Bayesian. There are few theories of decision making where a story that results in a week of...
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Either the chart is wrong (skewed by 4 days), I'm misunderstanding it, or he has date of letter wrong.
@jackshafer -
And again: ACA announcement was 10/24. Which Trump voters cited in why they voted.
@jackshafer -
I tracked avg of polls taken in prev 10days for ~80 days before elxn. DJT staying on script always moved needle most.
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Really? I mean, that has been entirely unmentioned in post mortems but seems incredibly important.
@majorajam -
yup. And the 1st to notice this effect was UPI/CVoter pollster way back in August.
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I've commented abt how being on script may explain him bringing older Johnson voters home. Explains part of gap closure
@majorajam -
this article from UPI was a week or two after Conway took over. She understood this effecthttp://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/22/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-sticks-to-script-comes-to-within-1-of-Hillary-Clintons-lead/3141471867581/ …
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im fact, Trump's numbers had begun dropping precipitously *before* the "grab em by the pussy" tapes. Why?
@majorajam - 2 more replies
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which would explain why his conclusions align perfectly with fivethirtyeight's. Both sets of numbers people just...
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goofed the date. Sorry, that strikes me as somewhat less than likely. Sounds like u're the one making the assumption
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You must not have read my post on nate at all. It's not abt date there. It's abt differential impact between states.
@jackshafer -
I'm struggling to discern your argument, honestly. Parsing state polls by factors that haven't been shown to move
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voting patterns- like security clearance- is extremely fraught. It sounds like story telling, honestly. Beyond that
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I don't see anything. Also, the idea that any trend is monocausal is a misconception. Entirely possible ACA news...
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made a small impact that moved polls followed by a much larger one from Comey. Their coincidence is meaningless
End of conversation
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