Why does data showing a polling drop starting after 10/24 show the effect of a letter released 10/28?
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Replying to @emptywheel @jackshafer
u're obviously not a Bayesian. There are few theories of decision making where a story that results in a week of...
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wall to wall negative coverage that plays to an existing narrative a week before an election doesn't move the needle
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Replying to @majorajam
That's not my point. My point is that the date of Comey letter is October 28. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3198222/Letter.pdf …
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Replying to @emptywheel @majorajam
Is there a theory of decision-making in which people change their minds BEFORE event that makes them change happens?
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Replying to @emptywheel @jackshafer
I understood your point, and I'm not suggesting we attribute pre-Comey polling 2 Comey. I'm suggesting u're bringing
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the wrong frame to the question of what the evidence shows
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Replying to @majorajam
You're saying polling numbers showing a move b4 Comey & plateau then climb after proves ... what?
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Replying to @emptywheel @jackshafer
I'm saying the polling showed a significant move toward Trump post-Comey and that the move beforehand is irrelevant
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Replying to @majorajam
But that's not what the graphic linked showed. Here's what it showed, w/Comey letter marked.
@jackshaferpic.twitter.com/IOZnLhS2uz
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Incidentally, the increase in ACA premiums was announced October 24. https://www.emptywheel.net/2016/11/13/role-obamacare-premium-hikes-trumps-win/ … @jackshafer
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