He keeps on saying this, and when asked "do you have data to back that up?" says "Yes, here:", gives data that doesn't establish that at allhttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/807987340941684736 …
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Replying to @kevin_bowen
"Late-deciding voters broke strongly against Clinton in swing states". OK. How do you know that was cause of the Comey letter?
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Replying to @kevin_bowen
Twitter is not representative of IRL. Most people don't obsess about this stuff like we do. Most people don't even watch cable news.
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Replying to @kevin_bowen
What percentage of the general public even heard about the Comey letter? I haven't seen data on that, but I'd bet it's very small.
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Replying to @kevin_bowen
Also, Hillary started falling in polls after 10/24 (after ObamaCare announcement), not 10/28 (Comey letter).
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Replying to @emptywheel @kevin_bowen
Also, for some reason voters in state full of clearance holders, VA, went for Hillary after letter, but MI, OH went Trump.
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I think it made a difference, but for some reason Dems don't want to consider whether spiking ACA premiums had effect.
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