Data supporting the Comey Effect: http://53eig.ht/2fvuQNl and http://bit.ly/2gAjsTt
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u're obviously not a Bayesian. There are few theories of decision making where a story that results in a week of...
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wall to wall negative coverage that plays to an existing narrative a week before an election doesn't move the needle
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That's not my point. My point is that the date of Comey letter is October 28. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3198222/Letter.pdf …
@jackshafer -
Is there a theory of decision-making in which people change their minds BEFORE event that makes them change happens?
@jackshafer -
I understood your point, and I'm not suggesting we attribute pre-Comey polling 2 Comey. I'm suggesting u're bringing
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the wrong frame to the question of what the evidence shows
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You're saying polling numbers showing a move b4 Comey & plateau then climb after proves ... what?
@jackshafer -
I'm saying the polling showed a significant move toward Trump post-Comey and that the move beforehand is irrelevant
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Also why did late-deciders in VA not care abt Comey's letter but late-deciders in MI did?
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