One puzzle abt Comey's impact: late breaking VA voters--which prolly has more clearance holders than anywhere else--broke for Hillary.
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So it may be that Comey decided the election in MI and WI. But not in VA. Why would WI voters care so much more than VA?
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FWIW, I think it may be that clearance holders thought email story was BS--tho I've seen a ton of clearance holders bugged *for that reason*
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But I also think the email scandal may have played differently in hollowed out America than in (especially in affluent DC area) VA.
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but if it is 1% difference in Clinton's vote, she wins MI, PA, WI... surely you would grant at least a 1% impact wouldn't u?
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Is PA 1%yet?
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And I'll cede you MI and WI. But she could have ALSO gotten 1% by showing up to the states before the last weekend.
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She went to AZ. Great! It'll be swing in 2020, if we have an election. She didn't show up to key swings until the last weekend
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This one is *really* easy: It played into Trump narrative that the establishment rigged things for Clinton.pic.twitter.com/oXK6NHoZHT
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I guess that makes sense, for those big Trump fans that were following that closely.
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2) Comey, FBI, media behaved incredibly irresponsibly (at best)
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Agree on that point. But the July 2 announcement was the start of it, not the late letter.
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Totally agree. (Though I don’t think the July announcement *required* the late letter. )
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because of the letter, Trump campaign hammered over & over on issue, drawing out reluctant voters & discouraging some weaker Ds
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That may be true. All I'm saying is that the public case so far has holes, such as that swing started before letter.
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yes, but I doubt it would have been sufficient given how narrow final margins were
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Great stuff.
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All I know is that loss can't be Hillary's fault. Nothing is ever her fault, so through pure deductive logic, this wasn't either
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@DemFromCT Reminds me: voter turnout only slightly off from 2012, still much higher than in the 1970s:https://twitter.com/CarlBialik/status/797218457658028032 …
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