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emptywheel's profile
emptywheel
emptywheel
emptywheel
@emptywheel

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emptywheel

@emptywheel

Abundant tweets about civil liberties & national security. "Has a longer memory than an elephant & keeps more records than Jim Comey.” Legendary potty mouth.

Grand Rapids, MI
emptywheel.net
Joined August 2008

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    emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016

    Here's why I'm not (yet) convinced that Comey's letter was as decisive in election as people want to say. https://www.emptywheel.net/2016/11/11/blame-comey-movement/ …

    3:03 PM - 11 Nov 2016
    • 24 Retweets
    • 30 Likes
    • Ira Goldman 🦆🦆🦆 SM Nick Krosse 🌐 Matthew Zadrozny Keyboard Resistor 🦎 Curious Reptile 🦎 Rajiv Nunna BeckiJayne pmcall
    13 replies 24 retweets 30 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        One puzzle abt Comey's impact: late breaking VA voters--which prolly has more clearance holders than anywhere else--broke for Hillary.

        3 replies 8 retweets 14 likes
      3. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        So it may be that Comey decided the election in MI and WI. But not in VA. Why would WI voters care so much more than VA?

        16 replies 5 retweets 4 likes
      4. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        FWIW, I think it may be that clearance holders thought email story was BS--tho I've seen a ton of clearance holders bugged *for that reason*

        1 reply 4 retweets 4 likes
      5. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        But I also think the email scandal may have played differently in hollowed out America than in (especially in affluent DC area) VA.

        0 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Kenneth Bernstein‏ @teacherken 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        but if it is 1% difference in Clinton's vote, she wins MI, PA, WI... surely you would grant at least a 1% impact wouldn't u?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @teacherken

        Is PA 1%yet?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel @teacherken

        And I'll cede you MI and WI. But she could have ALSO gotten 1% by showing up to the states before the last weekend.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel @teacherken

        She went to AZ. Great! It'll be swing in 2020, if we have an election. She didn't show up to key swings until the last weekend

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jamison Foser‏ @jamisonfoser 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        This one is *really* easy: It played into Trump narrative that the establishment rigged things for Clinton.pic.twitter.com/oXK6NHoZHT

        5 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
      3. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @jamisonfoser

        I guess that makes sense, for those big Trump fans that were following that closely.

        4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Jamison Foser‏ @jamisonfoser 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        2) Comey, FBI, media behaved incredibly irresponsibly (at best)

        1 reply 3 retweets 5 likes
      5. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @jamisonfoser

        Agree on that point. But the July 2 announcement was the start of it, not the late letter.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Jamison Foser‏ @jamisonfoser 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        Totally agree. (Though I don’t think the July announcement *required* the late letter. )

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Kenneth Bernstein‏ @teacherken 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        because of the letter, Trump campaign hammered over & over on issue, drawing out reluctant voters & discouraging some weaker Ds

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @teacherken

        That may be true. All I'm saying is that the public case so far has holes, such as that swing started before letter.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Kenneth Bernstein‏ @teacherken 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        yes, but I doubt it would have been sufficient given how narrow final margins were

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Ira Goldman  🦆 🦆 🦆‏ @KDbyProxy 12 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        Great stuff.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Ban Torture‏ @BanTorture 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        All I know is that loss can't be Hillary's fault. Nothing is ever her fault, so through pure deductive logic, this wasn't either

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Phoenix Woman  🍩‏ @PhoenixWomanMN 11 Nov 2016
        Replying to @emptywheel

        Phoenix Woman  🍩 Retweeted Carl Bialik

        @DemFromCT Reminds me: voter turnout only slightly off from 2012, still much higher than in the 1970s:https://twitter.com/CarlBialik/status/797218457658028032 …

        Phoenix Woman  🍩 added,

        Carl BialikVerified account @CarlBialik
        Voter turnout fell from 2012, but only modestly, and it's still above the trough of 1972-2000 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voter-turnout-fell-especially-in-states-that-clinton-won/ … pic.twitter.com/8WYaJ4HnXI
        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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