But that still leaves open a question: he claims his court testimony is true. Would an immunity deal immunize him for obstruction based on contradicting his proffer?
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Replying to @jedshug @Mimirocah1 and
Immunity grants don’t protect you from perjury or obstruction charges if you lie while giving immunized testimony. But as
@EricColumbus points out, what would stop Trump from then pardoning Manafort for perjury or obstruction?5 replies 4 retweets 33 likes -
Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and
That’s why I’ve never been persuaded by the argument that the upside of a pardon would be M no longer has a 5th and could be compelled to testify. Presumably he’d lie or refuse, and if necessary Trump could just pardon him again.
4 replies 2 retweets 9 likes -
Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and
So why did Manafort take this plea deal? He lost $16M in the plea deal w/o much difference in sentence.
2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @emptywheel @jedshug and
I disagree- it’s actually a pretty good deal. His minimum sentence was going to be 17 1/2 years under the guidelines. Now the max is 10 and it could be a lot less based on his cooperation. It gives him a chance to avoid life in prison, versus no chance.
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Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and
His minimum sentence if he lost on all DC charges AND was retried and lost on the 10 hung charges was 17 years. And he loses an extra $16M. AND by taking the plea he gives up a pardon. Which is maybe just 6 years in prison, if that.
1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes -
Replying to @emptywheel @jedshug and
No - the guidelines in the DC case alone called for a minimum of 17 1/2 years. And he very likely would have been convicted on all counts.
1 reply 1 retweet 1 like -
Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and
Hi. I keep saying this. You are not talking about Paul Manafort in the least. You're talking about some defendant who hasn't been promised a pardon. To assume that defendant, you'd never have gotten this far w/o a plea.
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Replying to @emptywheel @RDEliason and
I have some basic Qs about M’s $$ What if anything do we know about his financial situation beyond the $46M he’s forfeiting? And if he was actually in eight-figure debt to Deripaska, why didn’t he sell some of his real estate to help pay it off?
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Replying to @EricColumbus @emptywheel and
Where does the 46$ million figure come from?
1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
Shorthand, from the forfeiture amounts in both the indictments.
@pbump's more careful analysis comes up with a more modest number, but still a huge number.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/14/robert-mueller-may-have-just-eliminated-one-trumps-biggest-complaints/ …
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Replying to @emptywheel @Mimirocah1 and
You always respond which is very helpful.
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