4/ I just have a phone on me, and this is an interesting question that probably isn’t going to play out (b/c of Manafort’s state crim liability). Thoughts? @Mimirocah1 @danielsgoldman @Delavegalaw @CBHessick @nycsouthpaw @AshaRangappa_ @BarbMcQuade @JoyceWhiteVance @emptywheel
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No idea why he didn't plead earlier, he certainly could have gotten a better deal. But the fact is he didn't, and now apparently has decided to cut his losses. If you're so certain he has been guaranteed a pardon, then he would not have pleaded now either.
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I've posted this several times in this thread. It explains what I believe, which you might refer to, rather than misstating what I'm arguing. https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/14/the-objection-that-made-muellers-case/ … The fact remains that your explanation misstates the known factors.
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I've read it, and I believe you are mistaken about what Manafort was facing in DC. The plea deal actually cut his exposure almost in half, even if he gets no credit at all for cooperation. But I think we are spinning our wheels at this point - have a good evening.
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Fair enough. I'm not arguing Manafort was wrong to take the plea, just that no argument about why he did that looks only at those sentencing guidelines provides a full explanation for his choices.
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I will go with
@RDEliason fact-based analysis vs.@emptywheel speculation designed to fit her long-running (but, in many instances, unsubstantiated) theories. Let's stick to the facts. Or else we have gone down Trump's rabbit hole. -
Your argument is that Manafort didn't go 10 months before he started considering a plea? Because the facts I'm focused on are known, past events, not (well educated) speculation about how a trial will likely come out.
End of conversation
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Moreover, Trump's own lawyers say they've been asked abt Trump promising pardons. It's not a made-up thing that Mueller has reason to believe that promise got made, https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/06/02/what-got-added-to-sekulows-list-further-obstruction-including-considering-of-firing-mueller-and-collusion/ …
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