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emptywheel's profile
emptywheel
emptywheel
emptywheel
@emptywheel

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emptywheel

@emptywheel

Abundant tweets about civil liberties & national security. "Has a longer memory than an elephant & keeps more records than Jim Comey.” Legendary potty mouth.

Grand Rapids, MI
emptywheel.net
Joined August 2008

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    1. Jed Shugerman Vote 11/6‏ @jedshug Sep 15

      2/ Mueller will get Manafort to a grand jury soon, but Manafort has already proffered key information to get a deal. Note: SDNY hasn’t made a deal with Cohen probably because he hasn’t given them enough reliable info. That suggests Manafort gave up more significant info already.

      8 replies 86 retweets 327 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jed Shugerman Vote 11/6‏ @jedshug Sep 15

      3/ If Manafort is pardoned, then given immunity, but contradicts last week’s proffered info to Mueller at a trial, he risks obstruction for lying to prosecutors or perjury for lying in court. Would immunity have to extend to perjury/obstruction? And if not, could he plead 5th?

      4 replies 40 retweets 189 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Jed Shugerman Vote 11/6‏ @jedshug Sep 15

      4/ I just have a phone on me, and this is an interesting question that probably isn’t going to play out (b/c of Manafort’s state crim liability). Thoughts? @Mimirocah1 @danielsgoldman @Delavegalaw @CBHessick @nycsouthpaw @AshaRangappa_ @BarbMcQuade @JoyceWhiteVance @emptywheel

      7 replies 30 retweets 116 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Mimi Rocah‏Verified account @Mimirocah1 Sep 15
      Replying to @jedshug @danielsgoldman and

      Agree with what you’ve said. If I understand your remaining question - can’t get immunity for lying to the court.

      1 reply 12 retweets 110 likes
    5. Jed Shugerman Vote 11/6‏ @jedshug Sep 15
      Replying to @Mimirocah1 @danielsgoldman and

      But that still leaves open a question: he claims his court testimony is true. Would an immunity deal immunize him for obstruction based on contradicting his proffer?

      7 replies 12 retweets 65 likes
    6. Randall Eliason‏ @RDEliason Sep 15
      Replying to @jedshug @Mimirocah1 and

      Immunity grants don’t protect you from perjury or obstruction charges if you lie while giving immunized testimony. But as @EricColumbus points out, what would stop Trump from then pardoning Manafort for perjury or obstruction?

      5 replies 4 retweets 33 likes
    7. Randall Eliason‏ @RDEliason Sep 15
      Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and

      That’s why I’ve never been persuaded by the argument that the upside of a pardon would be M no longer has a 5th and could be compelled to testify. Presumably he’d lie or refuse, and if necessary Trump could just pardon him again.

      4 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
    8. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Sep 15
      Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and

      So why did Manafort take this plea deal? He lost $16M in the plea deal w/o much difference in sentence.

      2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
    9. Daniel S. Goldman‏Verified account @danielsgoldman Sep 15
      Replying to @emptywheel @RDEliason and

      He took the deal to aim for a sentence of a year or two if his cooperation is really significant. It’s all about his cooperation, not the statutory maximum or guidelines sentence.

      3 replies 4 retweets 24 likes
    10. Randall Eliason‏ @RDEliason Sep 15
      Replying to @danielsgoldman @emptywheel and

      Cooperation is key - but even if he gets no credit at all for cooperating the plea shaves 7-10 years off his sentence, because the statutory max of 5 years for each conspiracy count trumps the guidelines. (no pun intended)

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Sep 15
      Replying to @RDEliason @danielsgoldman and

      No. It doesn't. You are treating him as a normal defendant, not someone who had been promised a pardon. We know he was promised a pardon. His time in prison was going to be 6 years, max, assuming pardon.

      2:24 PM - 15 Sep 2018
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • busticated Ginn Toxic Wait...what? Judith Knott Jan McGlashen Brown
      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Randall Eliason‏ @RDEliason Sep 15
          Replying to @emptywheel @danielsgoldman and

          I’m dealing in the facts, not speculation. But would you want to wager your freedom on the promise of a pardon from someone as erratic as Trump?

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        3. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Sep 15
          Replying to @RDEliason @danielsgoldman and

          Ok. What "facts" get you to a point where a well-lawyered defendant doesn't plead before the EDVA trial? Again, nothing you're arguing here accounts for who you're dealing with. You're imagining some invented character that didn't do what Manafort did in the last year.

          2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
        4. Randall Eliason‏ @RDEliason Sep 15
          Replying to @emptywheel @danielsgoldman and

          No idea why he didn't plead earlier, he certainly could have gotten a better deal. But the fact is he didn't, and now apparently has decided to cut his losses. If you're so certain he has been guaranteed a pardon, then he would not have pleaded now either.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        5. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Sep 15
          Replying to @RDEliason @danielsgoldman and

          I've posted this several times in this thread. It explains what I believe, which you might refer to, rather than misstating what I'm arguing. https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/14/the-objection-that-made-muellers-case/ … The fact remains that your explanation misstates the known factors.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        6. Randall Eliason‏ @RDEliason Sep 15
          Replying to @emptywheel @danielsgoldman and

          I've read it, and I believe you are mistaken about what Manafort was facing in DC. The plea deal actually cut his exposure almost in half, even if he gets no credit at all for cooperation. But I think we are spinning our wheels at this point - have a good evening.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        7. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Sep 15
          Replying to @RDEliason @danielsgoldman and

          Fair enough. I'm not arguing Manafort was wrong to take the plea, just that no argument about why he did that looks only at those sentencing guidelines provides a full explanation for his choices.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        8. legalnerd‏ @alegalnerd Sep 15
          Replying to @emptywheel @RDEliason and

          I will go with @RDEliason fact-based analysis vs. @emptywheel speculation designed to fit her long-running (but, in many instances, unsubstantiated) theories. Let's stick to the facts. Or else we have gone down Trump's rabbit hole.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Sep 15
          Replying to @alegalnerd @RDEliason and

          Your argument is that Manafort didn't go 10 months before he started considering a plea? Because the facts I'm focused on are known, past events, not (well educated) speculation about how a trial will likely come out.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        10. End of conversation

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