2/ Mueller will get Manafort to a grand jury soon, but Manafort has already proffered key information to get a deal. Note: SDNY hasn’t made a deal with Cohen probably because he hasn’t given them enough reliable info. That suggests Manafort gave up more significant info already.
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I’m dealing in the facts, not speculation. But would you want to wager your freedom on the promise of a pardon from someone as erratic as Trump?
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Ok. What "facts" get you to a point where a well-lawyered defendant doesn't plead before the EDVA trial? Again, nothing you're arguing here accounts for who you're dealing with. You're imagining some invented character that didn't do what Manafort did in the last year.
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No idea why he didn't plead earlier, he certainly could have gotten a better deal. But the fact is he didn't, and now apparently has decided to cut his losses. If you're so certain he has been guaranteed a pardon, then he would not have pleaded now either.
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I've posted this several times in this thread. It explains what I believe, which you might refer to, rather than misstating what I'm arguing. https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/14/the-objection-that-made-muellers-case/ … The fact remains that your explanation misstates the known factors.
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I've read it, and I believe you are mistaken about what Manafort was facing in DC. The plea deal actually cut his exposure almost in half, even if he gets no credit at all for cooperation. But I think we are spinning our wheels at this point - have a good evening.
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Fair enough. I'm not arguing Manafort was wrong to take the plea, just that no argument about why he did that looks only at those sentencing guidelines provides a full explanation for his choices.
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I will go with
@RDEliason fact-based analysis vs.@emptywheel speculation designed to fit her long-running (but, in many instances, unsubstantiated) theories. Let's stick to the facts. Or else we have gone down Trump's rabbit hole. -
Your argument is that Manafort didn't go 10 months before he started considering a plea? Because the facts I'm focused on are known, past events, not (well educated) speculation about how a trial will likely come out.
End of conversation
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