People keep asking about Manafort pardons. Set aside the state crim problem. Starting last Monday, Manafort spoke to Mueller’s team to get a deal. A pardon cannot unring that bell. He can be called as a witness with *immunity* to tell the truth (Pardon doesn’t create immunity)...
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2/ Mueller will get Manafort to a grand jury soon, but Manafort has already proffered key information to get a deal. Note: SDNY hasn’t made a deal with Cohen probably because he hasn’t given them enough reliable info. That suggests Manafort gave up more significant info already.
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3/ If Manafort is pardoned, then given immunity, but contradicts last week’s proffered info to Mueller at a trial, he risks obstruction for lying to prosecutors or perjury for lying in court. Would immunity have to extend to perjury/obstruction? And if not, could he plead 5th?
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4/ I just have a phone on me, and this is an interesting question that probably isn’t going to play out (b/c of Manafort’s state crim liability). Thoughts?
@Mimirocah1@danielsgoldman@Delavegalaw@CBHessick@nycsouthpaw@AshaRangappa_@BarbMcQuade@JoyceWhiteVance@emptywheel7 replies 30 retweets 116 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @jedshug @danielsgoldman and
Agree with what you’ve said. If I understand your remaining question - can’t get immunity for lying to the court.
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Replying to @Mimirocah1 @danielsgoldman and
But that still leaves open a question: he claims his court testimony is true. Would an immunity deal immunize him for obstruction based on contradicting his proffer?
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Replying to @jedshug @Mimirocah1 and
Immunity grants don’t protect you from perjury or obstruction charges if you lie while giving immunized testimony. But as
@EricColumbus points out, what would stop Trump from then pardoning Manafort for perjury or obstruction?5 replies 4 retweets 33 likes -
Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and
That’s why I’ve never been persuaded by the argument that the upside of a pardon would be M no longer has a 5th and could be compelled to testify. Presumably he’d lie or refuse, and if necessary Trump could just pardon him again.
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Replying to @RDEliason @jedshug and
So why did Manafort take this plea deal? He lost $16M in the plea deal w/o much difference in sentence.
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Replying to @emptywheel @RDEliason and
He took the deal to aim for a sentence of a year or two if his cooperation is really significant. It’s all about his cooperation, not the statutory maximum or guidelines sentence.
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He's not going to get THAT. And if he got a pardon, he'd get the same 2 years (or maybe 6), but keep $16M.
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Replying to @emptywheel @danielsgoldman and
Again, I'm in agreement with
@danielsgoldman.@emptywheel certainty of the minimum sentence is sheer speculation and doesn't account for possibility that Manafort's information may be so significant and helpful to the SC that a massive downward departure is justified.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @alegalnerd @danielsgoldman and
OK, but the certainty abt what would have happened in DC trial (even setting aside what Trump might have done) is not?
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End of conversation
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