One way we’re going to know if Manafort has anything on Trump is by Trump’s next moves. Because if he’s really got something on him, Trump will absolutely pardon him right now and fire Rosenstein. He won’t care about the supposed political blowback.
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And yes, I know the theory that a pardon would be futile. But does Trump? I mean, even if he was getting advice that it might be futile (along lines of what
@emptywheel or@jedshug argue), what makes us think he’d listen?9 replies 3 retweets 28 likesShow this thread -
A good point… but Mueller seems to have been pretty methodical about making it difficult for Trump to kill his whole case with one or two actions (pardons, firings). I expect Mueller has gamed out the possibility Trump will pardon Manafort and fire Rosenstein at this juncture..
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He has. But that doesn’t mean Trump understands that or takes it seriously.
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The likely outcome, I suppose, would be that Trump lashes out reflexively and destructively, AND that Mueller is well-prepared to counter it. Even more turbulent times lie ahead.
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I disagree,
@McDeereUSA. As@emptywheel notes, Trump needs pro help with the legal steps to pardon AND stop civil forfeiture AND provide protection for his family. And no WH counsel is going to provide that help. And Trump has another calculus... 1/1 reply 3 retweets 28 likes -
2/ What Marcy said. But more practically, once Manafort spoke to Mueller’s team to get a deal, a pardon cannot unring that bell. He can be called as a witness with immunity for telling truth, or perjury for contradicting. You can’t pardon away future perjury charges.
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A more interesting question might be to consider what it would take for Manafort to pursue what appears to US to be a really shitty deal. https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/14/the-objection-that-made-muellers-case/ … Mueller scared the shit out of Manafort to get this plea.
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I’m not sure it’s a bad deal for Manafort. You wrote: “unless he gets a downward departure for significant cooperation, he’ll do ten years.” But a sterling letter from Mueller, if Manafort has the goods, could knock it to 5 or fewer.
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He still loses $45M and the chance for a pardon.
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Replying to @emptywheel @jedshug and
Having a decent chance of not dying in jail ain't bad though
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Replying to @matthewjsinger @emptywheel and
Exactly. I'm not clear on how he could spend all that $45M in prison.
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