One way we’re going to know if Manafort has anything on Trump is by Trump’s next moves. Because if he’s really got something on him, Trump will absolutely pardon him right now and fire Rosenstein. He won’t care about the supposed political blowback.
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I’m not sure it’s a bad deal for Manafort. You wrote: “unless he gets a downward departure for significant cooperation, he’ll do ten years.” But a sterling letter from Mueller, if Manafort has the goods, could knock it to 5 or fewer.
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Plus keep in mind judges are not bound by the terms of plea agreements.
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No but they are bound by sentencing guidelines.
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No, they’re not. Variances and departures above and below guidelines happen all the time. They just have to provide reasons.
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For national security-related crimes?
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I mean, those are rare to begin with. But ultimately the sentence is for the judge to determine.
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FWIW, I don't think Mueller believes Manafort will get a downward departure. But they got Friday's testimony and that's what they needed.
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FWIW, a journalist who was at the courthouse on Friday told me that Manafort arrived just before 11am, so unlikely he was Queen-for-an-early-morning. Maybe they brought him before a judge on Thursday, used a sworn affidavit sometime that week. And that’d be significant enough
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It was sooooo bad after the deal a company had to be called it up to hose down the room because Mueller Scared the Shot out of Manafort!
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Incredibly helpful analysis here.
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