I talked to @joshgerstein yesterday on some of these questions:
1. "It's a big win for Trump to get this trial off the calendar in late September or early October without cooperation. Manafort might just be doing one last solid for Trump."https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/13/giuliani-trump-manafort-plea-bargain-821797 …
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2. "Manafort might be saying, 'Enough is enough. I spent $1 million, or $500,000 on legal fees and got eight convictions. This is someone who seems to have cared a lot about money and he may now be trying to shield some amount of money for his family."
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3. Unfortunately, the article quotes someone saying a pardon would prevent Manafort from being able to invoke his 5th amendment rights. That's wrong. The risk of state prosecution means he still can invoke 5th A...
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4. Even after a pardon, don't expect a furlough between convictions: "It could be there's a sealed indictment ready to go and as soon as Manafort is released from federal prison, there's a van waiting to take him to state prison." And after witness tampering, no bail for you.
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5.
@emptywheel , there was an explainer after the Scooter Libby case that discusses the process of a pardon returning fines:http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2007/07/can_scooter_get_a_refund.html …1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes -
6. "Treasury can't issue a refund—even if that person is later exonerated. For Libby to get back his 250 Gs, Congress would need to pass a law to make the funds available. Or it's possible that President Bush could issue a customized presidential pardon that specifies a refund."
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Also, the form of "clemency" means a great deal. Is it just commutation? If so then likely little to no effect on financial portions of sentence. If full pardon, then it gets more complex, but even there forfeiture protection may not be complete at all.
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One observation: If Trump goes beyond a simple pardon to a "customized pardon" to return millions to Manafort, I think the strength of an obstruction of justice and bribery case against Trump increases - both legally and politically. Has to part of the calculus.
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All that assumes he has anyone who could pull this off competently. I don't see his one competent lawyer, Flood, even attempting this, bc it is legally stupid, up to and including for power of the president.
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Hey Obama had good lawyers and didn't do the advance commutation for Cartwright that he arguably shoulda done instead of a pardon. Very few experts in the nuances of clemency.
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I'm not arguing this is easy! I'm arguing that Bush pulled it off very delicately, and he did so because he had highly competent lawyers and was a very disciplined client. Both things that are not true of Trump.
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