He thinks he'll be protected by the Senate Republicans. If they keep the majority, he's probably right.https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1034963477994110977 …
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
I actually do not think that Trump is much more protected from conviction by there being 50-52 Republicans than 49. And I think the risk for conviction, if impeached, is pretty high either way.
Whether that makes a difference depends on a legal question I haven't seen addressed but could be important: Is the Senate obligated to hold a trial should the House impeach? Or could McConnell just not hold a trial, as he pocketed the Garland nomination?
Interesting question, but practically speaking, I think many GOPers (including those with potentially competitive 2020 races) would force McConnell's hand. Let's not deny Senate Republicans agency as if McConnell is actually dictatorial, as opposed to their chosen instrument.
As a political matter, I suspect many Senate Republicans would voice displeasure publicly but would be privately quite happy not to engage in proceedings and votes that would divide their caucus and diminish their 2020 chances.
Gerald Ford overcame debate gaffes by his VP & himself to almost win in 1976 *because* the GOP ripped the band aid off in 1974. (Dems only gained 1 House seat in 1976! Senate neutral!) If GOP doesn't get distance from Trump in 2019, Trump can still be huge factor in 2022.
Democracy in action on this point is Republican Senators afraid to get out in front of voters but willing to follow them if Mueller or other events change their mind. You can hate it, but it’s democracy.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.