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emptywheel's profile
emptywheel
emptywheel
emptywheel
@emptywheel

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emptywheel

@emptywheel

Abundant tweets about civil liberties & national security. "Has a longer memory than an elephant & keeps more records than Jim Comey.” Legendary potty mouth.

Grand Rapids, MI
emptywheel.net
Joined August 2008

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    1. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
      Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

      I can see that, but if I were the prosecutor, I wouldn't want that to be my keystone charge on Stone. There's no bad case law on using the charge that way, but there's also not a lot of great case law. And for various reasons, DOJ hates dealing with staged conspiracy charges.

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    2. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
      Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

      What do you mean by "staged conspiracy theories"?

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    3. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
      Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

      Conspiracy charges. DOJ guidelines, IIRC, recommend charging all members of a conspiracy simultaneously, because later-charged conspirators gain an an advantage over earlier-charged conspirators -- something you don't want if you're ladder-climbing.

      2 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
    4. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
      Replying to @Theophite @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

      That's not saying that it's illegal or banned by policy, but it's not a particularly natural way for a DOJ-trained prosecutor to charge a conspiracy case.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
      Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

      I guess I'm not seeing why you think this is staged.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
      Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

      Do you think the IRA/GRU indictments describe a discrete conspiracy? My intuition is that the US-side conspiracy doesn't stand without the RU-side conspirators.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
      Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

      No, they don't. They'll link up, eventually, possibly even with a Cambridge Analytica (which still technically involves foreigners committing visa fraud).

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
    8. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
      Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

      Yeah. If there's a case for doing the indictment in stages, it's in a case like this. Especially because they're clearly trying to mitigate the downside of a staged indictment by holding back facts which are likely to be included in indictments of US persons.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
      Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

      Bingo. I guess I should draw out how I think it'll go down, take a picture, make a hash, and win the prediction racket.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
      Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

      All I'm saying is that as a prosecutor, I'd want some other felony on US persons to "pin the indictment" in the event that the conspiracy charge blows up. OTOH, they're prosecutors at the top of their game, and I'm inactive rn, so maybe they're comfortable without a net.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
      Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

      I hear you. I think the conspiracy will end up being more straightforward than you imagine. But also expect some election related crimes thrown in there. I suspect delay/care w/Stone is 1) he's a crucial nexus of it all 2) he's harder to show mens rea of agreeing to work w/RU.

      2:20 PM - 28 Jul 2018
      • 5 Likes
      • #VotersAgainstCrosscheck #BeAVoter Themistocles' Wall Vengeful Librarian the andychrist
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
          Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

          I maybe disagree with you a little there. If the primary objective of Stone's conspiracy was post-election chaos, then it'd be easier to get him on the CFAA-conspiracy mens rea than the ConFraudUS mens rea.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
          Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

          I don't rule out Stone being included there either, especially since he was kibbitzing in various manners for more hacking. Don't forget the Peter Smith operation, for example.

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        4. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
          Replying to @emptywheel @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

          Or even POTUS. What the GRU indictment sets up is Trump asking for more hacking, and HOURS LATER GRU doing that hacking.

          1 reply 3 retweets 7 likes
        5. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
          Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

          Yeah. Absent a report, I expect that the most likely role for POTUS is being named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the broader indictment of a bunch of inner-circle people. One thing I'm interested in is why Mueller is being so lackadaisical about pushing the POTUS interview.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
          Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

          For reasons I won't get into, I don't rule out Mueller charging the conspiracy with POTUS as Male 1 BEFORE an interview, not least to forestall pardons.

          3 replies 3 retweets 8 likes
        7. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
          Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

          I agree. It may not just forestall pardons, it may render them legally impossible -- depending on whether a pardon can be obstruction in furtherance of a conspiracy.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        8. emptywheel‏ @emptywheel Jul 28
          Replying to @Theophite @TCleveland4Real

          Right. So I think he's waiting to see if Manafort really wants to go to trial, tidying up Stone, and otherwise is pretty close.

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
        9. the andychrist‏ @Theophite Jul 28
          Replying to @emptywheel @TCleveland4Real

          Strongly agreed. There are things from the GRU indictment which indicate that some of the information from the indictment could not have been obtained any later than March of 2017. DOJ could have pushed that indictment out much earlier than this summer.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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