Because there are too many variables as to how it will roll out, and it will roll out differently for different areas (are they ag heavy? Heavily urbanized? Where do they get their water from? What kind of extreme weather do they experience? etc etc)
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THIS!
When the Global North starts to experience severe social instability and all kinds of crises (financial, food, natural disasters, etc) I think it's going to come quickly and be quite shocking to most people, even those of us who are expecting it.