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"Emerging markets also have higher levels of population density. They have higher levels of energy dependency and governments will therefor be extremely motivated to make the shift." 6/
"We’ve already seen emerging market capital expenditure on renewables overtake that of developed markets 3 years ago." 7/
"If you look specifically at China and the US, you see a spectacular leap frog taking place where Chinese expenditure and deployment of solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles has overtaken that of the US and continues to rise along S curves of growth." 8/
"We expect to see that being replicated in India and moving to other emerging markets." 9/
"There are 3 primary ways investors are impacted by this transition. First, there’s a very significant systemic risk." 10/
"The fossil fuel center is world’s largest sector in terms of deployed infrastructure w $25 trillion worth of assets. As renewables start to push down demand for fossil fuels, increasingly that becomes stranded and you get stranded assets & very significant financial losses." 11/
"The second area of risk is on the country risk. You have a significant number of countries where fossil fuels makes up a very large percentage of their GDP and wealth rent." 12/
"Specifically, there are 12 countries where its over 10% of GDP. All those countries, clearly, will be at risk as the rents from the fossil fuel sector start to decline." 13/
"Thirdly, you have stock markets and debt markets in the West where up to a quarter of debt and equity indices are in fossil and related sectors which will be damaged as this transition starts to play out." 14/
"The key question is *when* will we see the peak. Investors need to realize that actually the peak for the old, fossil fuel system will come very, very early in the energy transition." 15/
"You saw the same thing, for example, when we shifted from horses to cars after 1900. It tends to come when the new challenging technology is quite small – about 3-5% of total supply." 16/
"In this specific instance, if solar and wind continue to grow at current rates along their S curves and global energy demand continues to grow 1-1.5% we will see this peak demand for fossil fuels in the 2020s." /end
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