Emily Cunningham

Now @harrybenham_1 makes clear this comes with stipulations, and is *not* a forecast, but rather a "projection under certain conditions." And yet... exciting!! "To restate – this is not a forecast. But – neither is it a fantasy." 2/

"By 2030, [the impact from solar and wind] is so profound that it does something almost impossible to conceive right now: it will force a peak in useful thermal [fossil-fuel based] energy use (ca 2024-25) and total thermal energy use (ca 2027)." 3/

What do solar and wind have going for it? Well, a number of things. 1a) "almost two-thirds of the thermal fuel-based energy we consume today is lost to the world at large as heat and emissions." That's a LOT, and there's no more efficiencies to be made due to laws of nature. 4/

1b) "So, although as BP notes we “consume” 13.8 billion tonnes (equivalent), we only use about 5 billion tonnes (equivalent) usefully." Solar, on the other hand, produce final energy (electricity or heat) directly. 5/

1c) "When a solar cell converts light to electricity, that is a 1-1 activity – there is no burning discharges or thermodynamic losses to consider." 6/

Onto the second point: 2) Solar and wind "are growing very very quickly." Combined, their compound annual growth rate is 18.8%. 7/

Oh, and as it turns out, there is a HUGE COST SAVINGS transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy: 8/

"The cost of the 2018 thermal [fossil-fuel based] energy system overall is about $6 trillion per annum, based on $60 / bbl... The cost of the 2039 system based on a majority of solar and wind at a guesstimate of $10 / MWh would be $1 trillion in today’s money." 9/