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THIS IS BIG. Fossil fuel use *could* peak before 2030. From @harrybenham_1, a 30 year Oil & Gas veteran, now in energy transition:
"Ponder this a second: an energy system dominant for over 150 years is within about 4-5 years of being overthrown."
THREADhttps://www.dollarsperbbl.com/2019/08/09/changing-our-energy-legacy/ …
Now @harrybenham_1 makes clear this comes with stipulations, and is *not* a forecast, but rather a "projection under certain conditions." And yet... exciting!!
"To restate – this is not a forecast.
But – neither is it a fantasy."
2/
"By 2030, [the impact from solar and wind] is so profound that it does something almost impossible to conceive right now: it will force a peak in useful thermal [fossil-fuel based] energy use (ca 2024-25) and total thermal energy use (ca 2027)."
3/
What do solar and wind have going for it? Well, a number of things. 1a) "almost two-thirds of the thermal fuel-based energy we consume today is lost to the world at large as heat and emissions." That's a LOT, and there's no more efficiencies to be made due to laws of nature. 4/
1b) "So, although as BP notes we “consume” 13.8 billion tonnes (equivalent), we only use about 5 billion tonnes (equivalent) usefully." Solar, on the other hand, produce final energy (electricity or heat) directly. 5/
1c) "When a solar cell converts light to electricity, that is a 1-1 activity – there is no burning discharges or thermodynamic losses to consider." 6/
Onto the second point: 2) Solar and wind "are growing very very quickly." Combined, their compound annual growth rate is 18.8%. 7/
Oh, and as it turns out, there is a HUGE COST SAVINGS transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy: 8/
"The cost of the 2018 thermal [fossil-fuel based] energy system overall is about $6 trillion per annum, based on $60 / bbl... The cost of the 2039 system based on a majority of solar and wind at a guesstimate of $10 / MWh would be $1 trillion in today’s money." 9/
That's not all. While @harrybenham_1 describes fossil fuel inefficiencies when we use them, this new study shows how inefficient they are when focused on Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROI), a metric of how much energy it takes to provide energy.
10/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-16/fossil-fuels-are-far-less-efficient-than-previously-thought …
Please, please read @JKSteinberger's thread explaining how profound the implications of this study are:
(authors of study are: @exergy_paul, @dr_anneowen, @librand3, and @lukas_hardt)
11/https://twitter.com/JKSteinberger/status/1151027190403932160 …
paper by And don't miss @daveregrets' sordid tale on EROI.
He visited a big oil field in CA and learned they were burning gas in order to extract the SAME amount of energy in oil form.
12/
https://twitter.com/daveregrets/status/1151332377240584193 …
Reminder, even if solar and wind overthrows fossil fuels by 2030 or sooner, it is NOT a silver bullet. We're in a #ClimateEmergency now, and the new IPCC report on land makes clear we're in big trouble if we don't act at scale, at multiple levels, and FAST. But we CAN ACT.
/END
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