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The scenarios that are more in alignment with the known facts are a disorderly transition and a carbon crash. Both are far more challenging to our assumptions about the nature of the immediate future.
Agreed that the two scenarios are unlikely. But my concern is how violent and deadly the disorderly transition and carbon crash will be. Especially with the ascent of fascism globally. Especially since people often turn toward reactionary politics as they feel more threatened.
The people who are already under greatest threat from centuries of racism, sexism, colonialism, will be the ones disproportionately killed and devastated. This is already in motion with, for instance, the detention concentration camps at our borders that torture brown children.
Your concerns are well-founded and we here in the US are doing essentially nothing to prepare to help.https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/1138889527697608704 …
Yes, it'll get worse. How much worse will (mostly) be limited only by how disruptively we act and ruggedize. None of our political systems are capable of handling a carbon crash while respecting human rights, welcoming migrants, etc. Delay bakes in violence and oppression.
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