Emily Cunningham

There are some really interesting findings built into this "disorderly transition" scenario from the Bank of England. By far the most interesting are the corporate financial losses and gains involved. Mini-thread:https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/1141114165433520128 …

Their disorderly transition (carbon bubble popping) scenario finds a 42% loss in value for oil companies' fuel extraction businesses.

It finds a -65% loss (change in equity value) for coal used for power generation... though, interestingly, only a +10% gain in value for renewables companies.

It predicts a -30% loss in value for non-electric automotive (but a +15% gain for electric vehicle companies)

For "the manufacturing portfolio relying on transporting/extracting/processing fossil fuels or heavily reliant on fossil-fuel energy(eg cement, steel)" -35% drop in value.

Powerfully, it lays down (based it would appear on an EU Science for Policy Report) a -65% (!) "Change in equity value for sections of the investment portfolio comprising material exposure to agriculture and food security sector..."

Oddly, given the context, I find their most conservative assumption to be their estimation of physical brittleness or "change in property value for assets materially affected by physical climate change risk" which they peg at a global average loss in value of 10%.

I find that figure wildly optimistic in a scenario where action is delayed, then sudden—indeed, I'm reasonably confident that the brittleness bubble means catastrophic losses in value for a staggering amount of real estate around the world.