Writing about worst-case scenarios is useful (I've even done it: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html …). But 4C is not a worst-case; it is where we are headed.
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The upper-end of the UN's bell curve of possibilities puts the planet at 8C warmer by the end of the century—a worst-case outcome of a do-nothing carbon trajectory.
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4C may seem unthinkable, with such horrifying impacts we would like to believe the chances are vanishingly slim we get there. But while I think we will avoid that amount of warming, it is far from a worst case.
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That we often think of it that way is a reflection of just how tilted toward best-case and even beyond-bast-case most scientific research has been over the last few decades, when we did little in response.
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Which is why, at this point, unfortunately, our likeliest outcomes are actually quite catastrophic, and catastrophic outcomes actually quite likely. (x/x)
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Replying to @dwallacewells @KelseyTuoc
David, I agree with just about everything you wrote in this thread (even retweeting 3 of your points). But I take major issue and strongly disagree with your framing of "likeliest outcomes."
@AlexSteffen has a pointed thread on this:2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes -
Replying to @emahlee @dwallacewells and
Emily Cunningham Retweeted Alex Steffen
"There is no way in 2019 for American journalists to responsibly make odds on the likelihood of climate action."https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/1093266094989533184 …
Emily Cunningham added,
Alex SteffenVerified account @AlexSteffenI'd like to make what may seem like a small point, but I actually think is a critically important one: There is no way in 2019 for American journalists to responsibly make odds on the likelihood of climate action. https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/1093234590322327552 …Show this thread1 reply 3 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @emahlee @dwallacewells and
Emily Cunningham Retweeted Alex Steffen
Emily Cunningham added,
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Replying to @emahlee @dwallacewells and
Emily Cunningham Retweeted Alex Steffen
Emily Cunningham added,
Alex SteffenVerified account @AlexSteffenClimate journalism odds-making, in fact, reinforces a political stance taken by opponents of climate action. After all, if bold climate action is "highly unlikely," why should we make it a central debate in the halls of power, with so many other pressing issues at hand?Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @emahlee @dwallacewells and
Emily Cunningham Retweeted Alex Steffen
Emily Cunningham added,
Alex SteffenVerified account @AlexSteffenNext, I think these judgments are themselves suspect. I've been working on these issues for decades, and we've never seen a time when the politics of climate change are more obviously subject to big shifts, from accelerating technologies to the Carbon Bubble to green new deals.Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Replying to @emahlee @dwallacewells and
Emily Cunningham Retweeted Alex Steffen
Emily Cunningham added,
3:47 PM - 14 Jun 2019
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