Neither the GND/ NGO responses nor any plan yet proposed by any candidate approaches climate with the comprehensive urgency we need. I don't think we get the kind of plan we need passed for years—at which point we'll need even more—but clarity of mission is critical.
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Indeed, in 2019, I'd say the major job climate policy discussion has is to help to frame the national debate in more realistic terms, building political support for bold, rapid action down the road, under more favorable circumstances.
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We are caught in a bind that we need to acknowledge more directly: 1. The kind of action we need is outside the current Overton window. 2. The political odds of getting that action are currently, well, nil. 3. Not discussing it means we'll never get it. https://twitter.com/drvox/status/1122943325823045632 …pic.twitter.com/XiD7ZXv6at
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Our understandings of the strategies available to us in this situation are narrow, outdated—and yet fiercely defended by activists, experts, journos and politicos. We need a more realistic, direct discussion of the nature of this crisis and what responses are + aren't possible.
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The rising hostility between various interests within what we call the climate movement is not helpful in this regard, but that's a problem that's likely to be made worse before it becomes irrelevant with the waning of activism as the main driving force in climate action...
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Here's a safe prediction: Bold US climate action, if we get it, will not happen in an orderly, linear, incremental way driven & steered by policy from the Federal government. It will be disruptive, nonlinear, accelerative, multi-polar & likely enduringly, bitterly conflictual.
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Climate politics would have to change in unprecedented and improbable ways—ways that are currently directly opposed by not only the Carbon Lobby but some climate advocates themselves—for that prediction to be wrong.
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The Snap Forward touches on this.
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I can't *wait* for the Snap Forward to be published. Question re, "with the waning of activism as the main driving force in climate action." Do you see the main driver being economic collapse? That financial crises will wake people up, fast?
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Replying to @emahlee
Thanks! I think the climate politics to create bold policy will only happen after a group of other changes based more in economic risk, opportunity and innovation...
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