I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Iceland (93% of the population 16 years of age or older vaccinated) is experiencing its largest wave of Covid-19 yet. At this point, I think it is unreasonable to assume that increased vaccine coverage will result in herd immunity
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On the bright side, a much larger proportion of those infected have minimal or no symptoms, and fewer patients with Covid-19 are being admitted.
Detailed vaccine data: covid.is/statistical-in
Detailed incidence data: covid.is/data
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One thing the world might learn from Iceland is that breakthrough infections are NOT rare. We have a robust track&trace system with mandatory quarantine and double testing of quarantined persons. In this setting, most infections are diagnosed in vaccinated persons
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Of course a denominator problem exists at this level of vaccination. Unsurprisingly, infections are rarer among vaccinated. has created an informative figure demonstrating this (green vaccinated, yellow unvaccinated).
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Uppfært með nýjustu tölum. Þær tala sínu máli um muninn, þó það sé annarra að álykta um hvað megi lesa í hann.
Endilega lesið meðfylgjandi texta á síðunni:
grid.is/@hjalli/fjorda
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If you would like to learn more about how we structured the Covid-19 response in Iceland, we have put out some papers:
1. Describes the development & validation of a prognostic model and how it could be / is used in our telehealth service
twitter.com/eliaseythorsso
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2. Describes the telehealth service in more detail with an emphasis on the data we collected on symptoms and symptom progression
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Our study on symptomatology of Covid-19 in a population-based cohort has now been published. What symptoms do SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive individuals experience when prospectively & longitudinally followed from diagnosis until resolution of active infection?
bmj.com/content/371/bm
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3. Almost all cases of SARS-CoV-2 were sequenced at and this was used along with track&trace data to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. Primarily the work of , and
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A new preprint by @SolviStats @pmelsted and myself, modelling different vaccination strategies on a reconstruction of a large-scale Covid-19 outbreak in Iceland 1/4 medrxiv.org/content/10.110
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Vaccines are the most important tool we have to combat SARS-CoV-2. Whilst I stand by my original point that vaccines alone are unlikely to result in herd immunity, they do protect against illness. With huge caveats, the Icelandic data also do suggest that they reduce transmission
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AFAIK “herd immunity” is impossible without a sterilizing vaccine, i.e. one that eliminates transmission, which has been known from the outset these vaccines do not do.
So this might be a best case scenario?
Correct me if I’m wrong
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I (a physician dealing with Covid-19 patients, published several Covid-19 papers) truly believed that vaccines decreased transmission. Now that you have pointed this out I can't find a citation. If this was generally known beforehand, we were deluding ourselves - at least I was
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