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    4. velj
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    When we try to pay too little for things, it usually means exploiting labor, promoting slavery, creating more pollution, or otherwise externalizing the damage. Low prices often carry high costs. We in the West can't afford the true costs of what we think we deserve. Less is more.

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    2. velj

    When S&P 500 Gamma Exposure (GEX) is close to zero, the subsequent month of returns takes on a bimodal distribution. There are two types of markets: High GEX and low GEX. There's no "middle path."

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    1. velj

    Negative catalysts pushed the market lower & expanded volatility. But US equities would need to push spot significantly lower to trigger systemic trend deleveraging. That dark pools have remained buyers may reflect that longs remain in-trend. Friday explained in attached image.

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    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    Let the corporations hire the bland & obedient. We’ll take the passionate rebels. This will only expedite the changing of the guard.

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    1. velj

    Thread. Liking my tweet will go on your permanent record and mark you as a dangerous person. This is a “toxic behavior screening service” sold by to “hundreds of Fortune 500 cos”. This is not the CCP. This is not The Onion. Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    3240 is the gamma flip

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    heading to Park City for Feb, gonna just ski, sit in cash mostly and wait for some fear to buy

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    Long leads have been telling us for over 1Y now that the ISM could find a bottom in early Q1 ’20, but not before reaching the lowest lvls since ‘08. A bounce to 53 is possible, in-line w/ regional surveys; though, C/G ratio says no & EQs have already fully discounted a bounce.

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    31. sij

    Andrew Yang is modeling how to harness the populist energy that threatens to tear our country apart. :

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    If you care about a future-oriented alternative in the Democratic 2020 Primary, now is the time to support

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. sij

    WHO apologizes for miscategorizing the global risk as moderate when it should have categorized it as High, no kidding.

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    Hong Kong GDP run rate collapsing at an almost -12% real decline in the 3Q. Q4 won’t be much better. We are witnessing an epic collapse in the developed world’s most levered economy. Just wait until you see our next chart ...

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    22. sij

    In the short run it’s about ability, in the long run it’s about persistence.... and it’s always a little about luck.

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    The biggest challenge isn't building good models, its using them and sticking with them.

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    21. sij

    Treasury needs to either increase Tbill issuance by $50-60Bn a month or issue $50-120Bn worth of cash management bills in the next 4 weeks. Otherwise we are likely to see the following

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    17. sij

    I often get DMs asking for career advice from students interested in quantitative finance. Here are a few thoughts.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    17. sij

    We just registered an ExtremeHurst weekly scale top Extension on the Wilshire 5000 Index. Expect a flat to down period for several months. This ends the trend that started with an Aug 27th Compression. License our tools on Bloomberg or TradeStation

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    17. sij
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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. sij

    The recent rebound in US economic activity is holding on to most of the gain, according to today's update of the Philly Fed's ADS business cycle index. Recession risk, in short, remains low:

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