Elijah J. Magnier

#Turkey-#US deal was strikes for 1 purpose: Take the political heat off @realDonaldTrump. It is in no way possible for such a deal to hold. The deal gave Trump a possibility to calm down the attack against him and for Turkey to satisfy Trump and take off newly imposed sanctions.

#turkey-#US deal cannot give the Syrian #Kurds time (5 days) to pull out because it means they are helping Turkey to control their area and never return to it. the #Kurds have only one way to keep their lands, farms, homes: by giving the control to #Damascus and only this option

#Turkey is not very enthusiastic to strike a deal with the #US, although Erdogan is happy to sort out Trump's political pressure. Erdogan doesn't want to make a deal with the #US that is leaving the Levant when #Russia is staying for very long.

It is much more productive and beneficial for #Turkey to strike a deal with #Russia. The opportunity is at the door due to the already organised Erdogan-Putin meeting next Tuesday. Moreover, Erdogan can re-create a balance in his visit to #Washington next month.

Again, Syrian #Kurds should be consistent & understand that it is in the interest of the #US NOT to keep troops in #Syria. There is no direct benefit for the Americans to stay & die in #Syria. Kurds in Syria will have to sort out this with the central government sooner or later

#Damascus will have to look after the #Kurds and the Arab tribes in the area like prior 2011 and much more because the consequences of the war need the support of the entire Syrian population to re-build the country.

The Arab tribes in the north-east #Syria will stand by #Damascus forces because the #US will stop paying money to these, like the #Iraqi Sahwa, since US forces are leaving the area.

All available elements are in favour of the #Syrian government. Therefore any disturbance to this path and process will be temporarily, from one week to one year, because the political process needs time to reimplemented and agreed. However,...

However, it will be the responsibility of the Syrian gov to speed up the national reconciliation and seriously discuss and find a rapid agreement on the new constitution. The #Kurds in #Syria, like all other rebels, are part of the reconciliation and the suggestions of reforms.

#Russia and #Iran can support and are supporting #Syria. But at the end of the day, it will be up to the Syrian Parliament to approve the new constitution in a way that satisfies most (impossible all) demands. If agreed, #Turkey will have no more reason to stay in Syria.

At the moment, #Rurkey will remain in #Afrin and in the occupied territory in north-east #Syria (NES) until a political solution is found. #Idlib is another matter: although there are many Jihadists in the attack on NES, these are under #Turkey's thumb, unlike Idlib.

#Turkey can no longer protect Jihadists in #idlib & these will be on the next objective of #Russia and #Damascus guns to solve permanently, with a military operation. If a deal (most likely will happen definitely) is reached between Putin and Erdogan, the next station is #Idlib.

I am no longer worried about NES because the #US can't keep forces around oil and gas area and remain in an isolated spot. Doesn't stand. Even the 3US presence at al-Tanf is ridiculous but it is Trump's way not to get all the heat in one go from all sides, including #Israel.

As I wrote in my last article, the presence of #US forces at alTanf has no strategic meaning when alQaem crossing is open. Of course, al-Tanf shorten the distance and is must safer to protect. Nevertheless, the long feared and speculated #Tehran #Baghdad #Damascus #Beirut is open