Idle thought: the decision training espoused by Superforecasting is better suited for investors; the decision training used by the Marines is better suited for operators.
Conversation
Why might I think this? Current suspicion: “you need a different kind of decision making training if you can take action to generate information.”
Superforecasters and investors often can’t take action when making a prediction/investing. Marines and operators can.
4
3
19
Replying to
thought... I wouldn't be surprised if the military does both: one focused on superforecaster-like forecasting, and one focused on decision making in tight loops under conditions of uncertainty
1
1
Replying to
Hmm! Ok, fair point — the Superforecasting project *was* originally intended for intelligence analysts, after all.