Idle thought: the decision training espoused by Superforecasting is better suited for investors; the decision training used by the Marines is better suited for operators.
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Why might I think this? Current suspicion: “you need a different kind of decision making training if you can take action to generate information.”
Superforecasters and investors often can’t take action when making a prediction/investing. Marines and operators can.
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Example of Marine style tactical decision games:
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Oh, this is great: @chrizbot takes the scenario training approach of the US Marines and applies it to product management training medium.com/agileinsider/d
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Another:
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There is an interesting sub-point here, which is “how do you train lower level commanders to improvise?”
Schmitt talks about how the adoption of Warfighting led him to develop Tactical Decision Games as a training methodology:
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From Warfighting, two passages that outline the shape of decision making (and decision training) in war:
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It’s basically strategy as gameplay. Operators need a certain kind of map to figure out what play to “call” next
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Further idle thought: where do you place CEOs?
Feels like some combination of an investor & operator mindset?
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