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“It’s resulted in the discovery of a lot more successful wells, let’s put it that way.” “And this has happened in almost every case where we’ve done a cognitive task analysis.”
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Why does this happen? Well, experts may see what they’re doing with their actions, but they’re not as good with what goes on in their heads. Clark says that chunking is the heart of expertise, but chunking also means intuition and expert decision making becomes invisible.
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As a result, traditional task analysis misses out on 80% of the instruction necessary for effective training, which CTA solves for. Clark also notes that the 1 cost benefit study he’s seen: 7x up front time costs, but 1/2 training time and save 2.5 person years per trainee.
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Unfortunately it takes 5-6 months of training before someone can be really proficient in performing CTA. The reason is that experts tend to tell you about the decisions they typically make, but tend to forget what they do when unexpected things crop up. Good CTA captures that.
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The cool thing about CTA is that it usually results in everything you need to create a new training program. The only thing is that you have to explicitly ask for is more examples, because you can do (some forms of) CTA without. But then you have instant training at the end!
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Good question: “does it result in more training or job aids?” (Note: job aids could be decision tools, or it could be redesigned user interfaces like in the military or in NASDAQ’s fraud detection dept) Clark guesses in most CTA engagements, 80% training, 20% job aids.
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Finally, I suspect CTA is going to be big soon. “The Obama administration heard about us and asked us to make a presentation (…) then they asked us to do engagements with federal agencies and those said no. This angered the White House. But now these folk are in foundations…”
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“Eric Schmidt’s foundation looked into CTA, and they realised that the huge up front cost of training someone to do CTA … made it ideal for replacement with an AI system … so they funded one. And we’re now a year into this … and then we want to offer it to people to use.”
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