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Something I’ve been toying with: the software company equivalent of capital efficiency isn’t tech efficiencies but go-to-market efficiencies. In other words: the cost edge comes from relatively cheaper acquisition not relatively cheaper servers.
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I don't agree with the reasoning that Kubernetes will be forgotten because it reduces productivity. If you look at the most successful post-Twitter tech companies, backend effectiveness and efficiency is just not a serious driver of success. It seems to barely matter at all.
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I don’t 100% believe this, to be clear. Empowering a small engineering team to shave off cloud costs seems perfectly reasonable in some situations. But maybe not the highest order bit.
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(Of course, minutes after I tweet this, my brain generates multiple counter-examples. Fraud at 2000s-era PayPal, server spend at some infra startups today — e.g. every new free-tier user spins up a large instance. So obvious exceptions exist).
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Labor costs far more than infra for all but the most compute heavy software. Being quick is the sign of effective labor, typically.
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I think you’re on to something. There’s a lower bound of operational cost below which no net new companies are enabled to succeed. Like if it costs $1000 a month to start a company vs $100, really how many more successful ones would exist?