Reading Eric Migicovsky’s reflections on why Pebble failed is instructive. Is it really true that Pebble failed because he lacked vision and failed to stick to their initial niche? (‘Quirky, fun smartwatches for hackers’)
Or are there other reasons?
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Definitely. They had a good smartwatch with a great battery that acted as a notification hub that nerds and moms (phone in purse) loved.
They then shipped a shitty metal dress watch that couldn’t compete with Rolex or Apple Watch.
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#1. Nobody likes watches. Write me your objections with your fountain pen.
#2. Apple is not a "watch." It's an EKG.
#3. It is now possible to reach pretty much ALL the market for a thing. Pebble did this, I suspect, based on other cases I've seen. Probably the real lesson here.
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I love this, because it demonstrates some of the possible lessons that we can take from the Pebble experience. But the thing is, we won’t know which are the ‘real’ lessons!
I think this is what I was trying to get at — we all have our guesses, but we will never truly know.
Behavioral researcher. I'm confident: they exhausted everyone willing to exhibit the behavior. Impossible in 1956, way too possible now. Kickstarter is the critical lesson of the last decade/20 years. Big issue: people don't want to acknowledge finite/bounded growth.
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