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Using words, such as “likely,” “certain,” or “possible,” is more honest when making predictions than using numbers (“75% chance”). Show me the math! There isn’t any, because the numbers are just an expression of a gut feeling. Less charitably, the numbers are fake. 1/n

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Percentages are you real probability that let's you check your average accuracy. “likely”/“certain”/“possible” are all weasely because they all mean different things to different people. Is 10% %"likely"? Everyone has different opinions. Is 1 in a million "possible"

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Also your central thesis is simply wrong:

commoncog.com

How The Superforecasters Do It

A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?

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and

What’s really interesting to me is to assume Samo is familiar with the entire GJP literature (how could he not?), and still he’s taking such a position anyway. On what basis might he be arguing this? Who or what is he referring to?

2:55 PM · Mar 5, 2022Twitter Web App