Something that I’m chewing on that I haven’t quite pinned down (or properly developed a view on): Bayesian thinking may well be the most effective way to think when faced with uncertainty, but Bayes’s Theorem may be the wrong way to teach it.
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I am a professional investor and we use Bayesian updating all the time but without the math. We create pre-mortems on the investment working out and not working out. Then we create a catalyst path. We review the investment thesis as we hit various points in that path
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