Something that I’m chewing on that I haven’t quite pinned down (or properly developed a view on): Bayesian thinking may well be the most effective way to think when faced with uncertainty, but Bayes’s Theorem may be the wrong way to teach it.
Conversation
This tweet brought to you by the observation that some of the most intuitive Bayesian thinkers I know don’t explicitly update using percentages.
Instead they seem to do something different. Many of them seem to generate multiple explanatory stories instead and hold them loosely.
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The internal thinking is like a quantum superposition of possible future states
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Yes! Well put!
(And now we’ve just turned off the non Physics nerds)