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The nice thing about reading history is that it repeatedly (and I mean REPEATEDLY) disabuses you of the notion that tech needs a clear use case in its infancy. I put myself in the shoes of mistaken commentators and mostly think “hmm, yeah, that take makes sense.” It’s humbling.
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I don’t know enough about web3 to have a view either way but I’m not convinced by this comparison since at this point computers were already providing a lot of value to specific (even if niche at this point) roles and had been for years (decades?)
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Please remember that the survivorship bias is strong when reading a book about Intuit. Lacking a direct use does *not* make a technology *more likely* to survive.
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The point isn't that such cases do not exist. There is tech that succeeded because it had a clear use case, as well as tech that succeeded even though it had no clear use case. The point is that 'having a use case' is not a useful/sufficient criterion for tech success.
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Confidence is a bit much to have at this point in any direction, but without challenge and criticism can it reach its potential and “solve” real problems (if it has any?).
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More specifically, I think “comparisons to other tech which has emerged as successful” works against cryptocurrencies because they succeeded in similar (or shorter) time frames; I count that more than lack of envisioned use cases.
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