“In two back to back sentences you have a) defended the practice of agile point estimations, and then b) said that you no longer believe the future can be predicted, and that we should run organisations for fast adaptation instead.”
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Of course this begs the question: “what is an agile product development process that is ACTUALLY built for fast adaptation under uncertainty?”
This latest episode of “things people have said to me that I’m shaken by”, brought to you courtesy of .
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To be precise:
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Replying to @ejames_c @danielwithmusic and @DRMacIver
At which point I told him about my opinion of superforecasting (commoncog.com/blog/the-limit) and he pointed out that it was incompatible with any defence of agile point estimations.
He was, of course, correct.
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Have you read THE TOYOTA PRODUCTION SYSTEM by Taiichi Ohno? It doesn’t fully answer this question, if indeed anything can, but it talks pretty specifically about some of the requirements in ways that I suspect got worn down by later adapters
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Yes! That was one of the most profound things I've read last year.
I also believe it's totally mistaken when applied to product development. As far as I can tell, the cross-over point is with Mary and Tom Poppendieck, and I need to investigate that next.
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Oh, it was during a call. David was telling me his opinion about agile point estimations, I was pushing back gently on it, he successfully pointed out scenarios in which my defence of point estimations would fail, and then he brought up Superforecasting.
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I think the answer is very much connected to how you build any org to be good at
1. environmental sensing and response, and
2. figuring out what goals should be instead of taking them as given
(also: v excited that you're doing something with my book!)
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