I've only skimmed the NDM literature so far, so maybe you are further along and know this. Which papers in the lit cover whether using RPD etc. results in *better* decisions than other approaches?
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I.e. two experts of similar expertise, only one uses RPD. Who makes the better choice?
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Hmm, I don't think this is the right framing. It's more like "what is expert intuition? — Ok, expert intuition *is* RPD."
So you can't really pick per se — you either have expertise or you don't. RPD just describes what goes on in your head when you use your expertise.
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So the better question, that's more in the spirit of what you're asking, is "in what cases does expert intuition do better than rational choice analysis?" And the seminal paper for that is Kahneman and Klein's Conditions for Intuitive Expertise fs.usda.gov/rmrs/sites/def
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Power of Intuition has a good summary of RPD in Chapter 3, I've included screenshots below.
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Fantastic, exactly what I was looking for, thank you!
I think this quote encapsulates my issue in a way. I guess I'm more in Kahnemann's camp and somewhat impatient with the "expert adulation" of NDM.
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What particularly irks me is the insistence (as I perceive it) that expert judgement is "the way" because it's "used in the field!"
Dick Heuer's "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" is a cornerstone of decision making in a very high-stakes field for a reason.
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A reframing that might be more palatable to you is ‘RPD is how our brains work, and many of the heuristics that lead to bad judgments in the HCB tradition of decision making are simply side effects of the way our cognition works.’
RPD is, after all, made up of the availability and simulation heuristic.
What the NDM approach gives us is an alternative model of what to do with those heuristics: that is, to embrace and train them, instead of fight against them (which is what the HCB tradition espouses).
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Although, that said, I think Klein would agree with you and Kahneman that RPD might be of little help in intelligence analysis!
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