Gary Klein, on good and bad decision makers: “good decision makers notice contradictory evidence, bad decision makers fixate and explain it away.”
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The question, as always, is what helps them do the former and not the latter? What habits of thought? What techniques?
I haven’t looked yet, but I hope the evidence base for this isn’t tiny, and there are many methods to try.
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For full context, Klein is one of the founding members of Naturalistic Decision Making, and was responsible for Cognitive Transformation Theory.
I recommend the podcast.
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9/ So here we get at the heart of the theory.
CTT tells us that we learn only when we destroy old mental models. We DON'T learn when we are refining an existing model.
It also tells us that it gets harder to unlearn when our mental models become more sophisticated.
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