a fundamental element of intelligence is the ability to update beliefs, and one of the (many) flaws in things like IQ is that such measure take no account of it … anyone have any thoughts on how to measure belief updating? for people or organizations?
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i think you want "Superforecasters" by Phil Tetlock, along with a series of papers he has written on Brier scores similar subjects. also look up his "Alpha Brier Process" article, which talks about how Brier scores are used in investment mgmt.
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excellent, thanks! i reqd the book a while ago, amd brier rings a bell. will dig back in
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sure... do look up some of the papers as well...this got me thinking and i googled it, only skimmed this but looks like a decent summary of the concept:
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Ahh, I was disappointed to learn that the Alpha-Brier paper was merely a proposal for investment managers, not a case study of an actual implementation. AFAIK, no actual implementation has yet been attempted.