Help me out with an ongoing bet please. It’s about whether the Tokyo Olympics will occur in 2021. I’m currently being defeated by the HUNGRY HUNGRY HIPPO😣
Not investment advice! (1/9)
Conversation
AGAINST: They might be cancelled because almost all Japanese people hate this thing and see it as a super-spreader event, Covid risk is still here and Japan’s vaccination is slow. It was cancelled in 2020 so it might be cancelled again. (2/9)
1
1
FOR: Tokyo has dumped $15 billion into this thing already. They banned foreign spectators, which shows that they will hold it no matter what. The Olympics committee really wants athletes to compete. And if it’s cancelled, China will win with the 2022 Winter Olympics. (3/9)
1
2
CATALYSTS: This bet should resolve by the Olympics opening date at the latest, on 23 July. The torch relay begins on 25 March (tomorrow!), after which it becomes very likely to occur. (4/9)
1
1
ODDS: The Superforecasters have it as a 98% probability. Polymarket and Betfair have it at 91% and 86% probability respectively, although volume is very thin. FTX has it at 75%. (5/9)
goodjudgment.io/superforecasts
1
2
EXECUTION: So the FTX odds look great; mispriced relative to my view and to other markets. I went to get some “Yes” shares… and that was when I encountered the HUNGRY HUNGRY HIPPO. 😖😖😖 (6/9)
1
1
HIPPO OF DOOM: I put in orders near the bid. They were taken immediately. More orders. Taken! No matter how much I placed, a bot would keep taking my bids immediately. Totally insatiable. Even as my position ballooned to 30% of open interest, it kept on taking. What?! (7/9)
2
2
Replying to
I think this thread became 10x more interesting by the time you reach this tweet.
I am now invested in your outcome.
*presenter voice*: WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?