This week's Commonplace post is about taking base rate thinking ... and then exploring all the common sense applications of it. commoncog.com/blog/the-base-
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Brilliant extension on Nick's writeup. One question for you - I am pretty sure chances (base rate) of being a successful business operator is also slim. What made you pick this profession?
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Because I’ve been optimising for it for a long time, and, the same way that I’ve constructed a test for stock picking, I’ve been constructing tests for business for over a decade.
At this point I’m fairly certain I’m in a tiny reference class.