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This week's Commonplace post is about taking base rate thinking ... and then exploring all the common sense applications of it. commoncog.com/blog/the-base-

5:57 PM · Mar 2, 2021Twitter Web App

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Hat tip to

, who wrote a damn good post about respecting the base rate! ofdollarsanddata.com/respect-the-ba

@mt7328

Mar 2, 2021

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@ejames_c

Great post! The emphasis on "reference class" is great making the idea of base rates stick. Also, your willingness to experiment to see if you could be in a specific reference class is awesome too! Curious to see how I can apply this moving forward

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Brilliant extension on Nick's writeup. One question for you - I am pretty sure chances (base rate) of being a successful business operator is also slim. What made you pick this profession?

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Because I’ve been optimising for it for a long time, and, the same way that I’ve constructed a test for stock picking, I’ve been constructing tests for business for over a decade. At this point I’m fairly certain I’m in a tiny reference class.